James Robert Kelley

I’m not going to play with words on this, I think the worst is yet to come for the economy.  If you look at the consumer spending in 2007, when the recession started ( we didn’t figure it out until late 2008 ), you will see that Home Depot and its competitors experienced a downturn in sales.

Since our bubble economy is based on inflated housing prices, which produces credit, the government offered stimlus in the for of housing tax credits.  This created another mini-bubble and profits started to tick up.  The article below you will see the details, but a couple highlights:

Third-quarter sales fell 8 percent to $16.4 billion. The average customer ticket in the period dropped 7 percent to $51.89.

On Monday, Home Depot rival Lowe’s Companies Inc. reported its profit for the third quarter dropped nearly 30 percent to $344 million.

Home Depot profit slides in third quarter – Atlanta Business Chronicle:

The article has the usual Love and Light comments for the economy, and prayers to the false gods of money.  Once you get past all of that, think about this: What will happen when the government cannot afford to keep stimulating?  Look for the answer here, CNN: U.S. about to hit debt ceiling – again.

WARNING:  If you don’t care for conspiracy theory or material of a pluto nature, stop reading.

I noticed a news story on the Fox News website titled “Mexico Links Sickness, Deaths to Swine Flu.” It caused my tin-foil meter to rise when I read:

All seven U.S. victims recovered from a strain of the flu that combines pig, bird and human viruses in a way that researchers have not seen before.

That alone made me wonder if the virus was engineered or weaponized.  The article goes on to state that the flu virus has claimed at least 16 people so far in Mexico, so it has potential to be deadly.  The virus is communicable, as seen from the following statement:

The U.S. cases are a growing medical mystery because it’s unclear how they caught the virus. The CDC said none of the seven people were in contact with pigs, which is how people usually catch swine flu. And only a few were in contact with each other.

Considering it is a combination of several flu viruses, including avian and human, the virus is different than traditional swine flu.  This could account for the infection rate, but the nature of the various strains that constitute the virus is even more puzzling if it were naturally occurring:

CDC officials described the virus as having a unique combination of gene segments not seen in people or pigs before. The bug contains human virus, avian virus from North America and pig viruses from North America, Europe and Asia.

Viruses will combine and form new strains if a host is infected with more than one strain.  Let’s say a pig is infected with the swine flu, has contact with humans and eats a bird; you could see a naturally occurring strain containing components from each variant.  The last part of the quote above makes this exceptionally improbable event seem impossible.  The swine flu is actually composed of variants from North America, Europe and Asia.  Little piggies traveling to three continents to get infected seem unlikely.

After digesting that information I started to wonder the source of such a virus.  The next quote gave me a clue:

The cases were detected under unusual circumstances. One was seen at a Navy clinic that participates in a specialized disease detection network, and the other was caught through a specialized surveillance system set up in border communities, CDC officials said.

Don’t go looking in the article for that quote, it isn’t there.  When I first read the article I read the quote, and started thinking about how both cases were detected via government programs.  One being a Navy clinic and the other part of a specialized surveillance system set up in border communities.  Both of these would seem to have connections to military or security infrastructure.  Both were also have connections to research facilities that would be capable of altering virus genetics.

The fact that you won’t find this information in the article indicates someone was unhappy that the information was there.  It was removed quickly, because by the time a link to the article was read by a friend the information was removed.  Here is a screen shot of the article as it stands while this blog post if being written:

Not wanting to look like a raving fool for suggesting that Fox News would remove information that could indicate the source of the virus, I attempted to find the original text.  There was one version still existing on the Internet according to Google, the image below is a screen shot after a search for +border “strain of the flu that combines pig, bird and human viruses in a way that researchers have not seen before” on Google:

I took a string from the current article, and added +border to make sure only articles with the original text was displayed.  WJZ.com had the same content as the original with a different title: Rare Swine Flu Kills 16 In Mexico, Sickens 7 In U.S. It looks like they did not get the memo.  Just in case they do, here is a screen shot of the article:

Why would they remove interesting information so quickly, unless they were commanded to remove the information by someone who saw it as a potential risk?

Attached is the Internet Explorer “Save As” copied pages of the two sites, zipped.  They are only here in case the sites change more and you want to be able to reference how the content was when this blog post was written:

foxnews_com-mexico-links-sickness-deaths-to-swine-flu-cold-flu

Am I just getting a little paranoid, or are things getting a little out of control in Washington?

Obama is touting a new bill called “Cybersecurity Act of 2009,” which will according to James Osborne with FOXNews will give the President the “authority to shut down Internet traffic to protect national security.”

First of all, what is on the Internet that is so sensitive to be classified as a National Secret or be so critical that is threatens National Security? I’ve read the DoD manuals and the various documents that state how sensitive systems should be configured. The rule is to keep it off of the Internet.

Sure, we could have rioting in the streets if we could not Twitter or browse Facebook, but I think the ability to shutdown the Internet is took much of a power grab (or impossible).

That leads me to think the real target for the legislation is pointed out in the following quote:

The government also would have access to digital data from a vast array of industries including banking, telecommunications and energy.

Ahh, that makes more sense.  He doesn’t think he will need to shutdown the Internet.  Obama just wants to see what you are wearing.

Check out the legislation here:

http://www.thomas.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d111:763:./list/bss/d111SN.lst::|TOM:/bss/111search.html
http://www.thomas.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d111:768:./list/bss/d111SN.lst::|TOM:/bss/111search.html

In a previous post about the media failing to keep up with real-time news and introducing errors in their reporting, I suggested that the media stop trying and just wait long enough to be able to reflect on the news.

Here is another possible option: if the media insist on real-time reporting, instead of letting people look at commonly available real-time stats for themselves, they could introduce “IF THEN Reporting.”

The idea behind IF THEN Reporting is to make use of common web development techniques to modify their stories on the fly.  They could write their articles in the following manner:

echo “It was a “;

If(DOW.today < DOW.yesterday) {

     echo “bad”;

} else {

     echo “good”;

}

echo “ day in trading.”;

This would not add any more truth to their reporting, but at least it would always be reflective of the current state of affairs.

NOTE: I’m being sarcastic, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the media doing this in the future.

While an English professor would see declining grammatical quality in blogs and text messages as a major offence, the public is generally accepting.  My posts tend to be written within a couple minutes and may be a shining example of stupidity.

While illiteracy is common, until recently a typo or other error in a newspaper would have caused a major reaction.  The quality of newspapers transitioned into online articles, with Associated Press articles reprinted on Fox News, CNN and other websites.

Recently even the old media in the new world has started to slip.  Each day for the last several days I have noticed omitted words, misspellings and even place holders intended for additional information slipping past the editors.

The decline in quality could be related to the TXT’ing generation moving into the media, but I think the problem is a symptom of a general shift in business.  I assert bad apples were always in the pool of writers, but the editors were a strong bunch who could weed out the errors.  Recently editors have taken a sideline to rapid delivery of the news.

An example of rapid delivery would be news articles related to volatility in the stock market.  I watch the up and down motion of the market via Google Finance.  Google Finance lists articles that appear to have been posted near shifts in trading.  While this can be very handy to get perspective on what is changing throughout the day, it causes the news sources to be quick to post.

An example of real-time news reporting failure at the moment of writing.

These quick posts often become outdated before they are published.  A typical article will explain the market is down, while the market is making a quick recovery.  When the writers rejoice over a major upswing in the market, the real-time quotes will show major losses.  The speed of change and the inability to accurately report on real-time events renders any real-time analysis pointless.

My opinion is the real-time reporting is not news, but more of a sports announcer talking in delay.  I suggest the news industry would better serve their readers if the writers would take a breath and report the news only after there is something to report.  This would allow the writers to reflectfully dig deeper, and give the editors something to do again.

Two schools of thought are battling in Washington over how to “fix” the economy.  The Keynesian school of thought reasons that increased government spending will stimulate the economy, which is opposed to the school that relies on the “free market” to resolve the current economic conditions organically.

Those who subscribe to the Keynesian school believe that increased spending will promote job creation and increase the flow of capital in the markets.  They point back to the President during the Great Depression, claiming his policies created an environment that paved the way out of the Great Depression.

When employing the Keynesian method, “pork” is not a bad word.  Politicians often use the words “pork” or “pork barrel” to give a negative spin to unfavorable spending.  This has the effect of making the politician look conscientious and conservative with tax dollars.  The current Keynesian leaning administration sugar-coats the spending by calling it a stimulus, thus avoiding the negative label.  In the end, spending, especially pork that favors their long term agenda is acceptable to them and their supporters.

On the other hand, people favoring limited government intervention would rather let banks and auto manufacturers sort the matter out themselves.  They claim the “economic downturn” will more quickly resolve itself without manipulation of the markets and economy.  One of the strongest points is that the current “crisis” was caused by debt, and adding more debt is likened to paying your credit card bill with another credit card.  You delay the issue, but need to deal with a bigger problem in the future.

The correctness of one school over the other is not provable in the now, since the only way to measure success is to see if the tried method fails.  Although, one school is winning: Keynesian.

Why are the Keynesians winning?  Simply put, most of the anti-Keynesian people are supporting the school.  Even Rush Limbaugh supports the Democratic Party’s preferred method.  It all has to do with the slow creep of thinking and position.  More on that shortly.

Politics is mostly a mind game.  If you can get people to huddle into distinct groups, they will be more easily conquered.  The main strategy involves polarization, also known as “divide and conquer.”  We have two main parties in the United States of America: Republican and Democrat.  If you are a member of one of the parties you are either Pro or Anti something.  Pro-Choice, Anti-Abortion.  Pro-War, Anti-War.  Pro-Death Penalty, Anti-Death Penalty.  This Pro and Anti choice forces people onto one or the other side, making the massive middle disappear and the masses easier to control.

The next step is to introduce hot items to get people emotional.  In the abortion polarization the hot item was “partial birth abortion.”  If you are on the Anti side you will become angry, if you are on the Pro side you will fear the angry people and feel that you are about to lose all gains.  In the economic crisis, the hot items are pork and unrestrained spending.

Corporate CEOs are being targeted because they are buying private jets and taking vacations after receiving money from the government.  You cannot totally blame the CEOs, because Congress gave them the money without any strings or guidance.  Once these large companies started doing what many large companies do, Congress and the President made them into a hot item.

The reason these games are played is to create an environment that allows people to feel they can create compromise.  The problem is that both sides of the compromise are on the same side.  Do you want to spend $2 trillion or just $1 trillion?  Forget about spending nothing.  When you are polarized and herded into a direction based on fear, compromise seems reasonable.  People who would normally be opposed to the spending will start to say, “Why not give the $10,000 per person directly to the tax payers.”  Either way the government is increasing spending, but you start to feel like you have control and forget you are controlling a sinking ship.  This is why I said Rush Limbaugh supports the Democrat agenda, he offered ( mostly in jest ) his own stimulus plan to divide the money into Republican and Democrat chunks.  One goes to spending and the other to tax cuts, but the end result is that he is supporting the spending.

(Update May 9, 2008: Looks like CNN felt the heavy weight of my post, and updated their site.  Ok, maybe they don’t even know I exist, whatever).

I probably sound like a broken record, harping about the evil deeds the media does to Ron Paul this election cycle. Today I discovered another evil deed, and it definitely show a strong desire to keep the viewing sheeple calm and under control.

Indiana and North Carolina recently held their primaries, which led me to CNN’s website to see the delegate counts. I was interested in knowing if Ron Paul was able to pick up any delegates, now that he is the only guy running against McCain. Here is a screen shot from the CNN “Election Center 2008″ page:

This screen shot was taken early on Thursday May 8, 2008. CNN posted the Democrat delegate counts as they came in, but after more than a day passed I started to wonder if they were even awarding delegates on the Republican side. Then the aweful truth set in, Ron Paul must have won some delegates and the establishment does not want anyone to know!

Why would they care? The establishment, whoever they are, want us all to be calm little sheeple. If the presumptive nominiee is not mopping up all of the delegate, it means there is dissention in the party ranks. We cannot have any dissent! This set me on a fact finding mission, to see if Ron Paul had in fact picked up any delegates. I didn’t know if he would have, since he only scored 8% of the vote, but I had to know if my suspicion was correct.

My next stop was the Republican Party of Indiana’s website. There was ZERO information on their site that I could find. It seems like this primary was a total snoozer in Indiana. So I stopped by the North Carolina Republican Party website and could not find any useful information. I did find something that further increased my suspicions on on North Carolina Republican Party Candidates webpage:

Notice anything missing? They have on the page, in more detail than I’ve shown in this snip, a full list of candidates for the various offices in North Carolina. We can see that Senator Elizabeth Dole was facing competition from Pete DiLauro, etc. This missing part should be in the list of candidates running for President. It ONLY lists John McCain! Unbelievable! Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul were both on the ballot in North Carolina. Ron Paul is still officially in the race, yet his name is not on the list.

Basically, the NC GOP is telling us to not look behind the curtain and be loyal party sheeple, don’t question, just vote for the guy we ordained.

So, after that little journey, I still did not have my question answered. Did Ron Paul win any delegates? Is CNN and the Republican Party trying to hide the truth from us? A couple searches on Google turned up a result from an AOL webpage detailing North Carolina primary results, surely maintained by someone who has a lust for numbers and technology with little regard for politics:

There, My Friends, is the proof. AOL somehow let this one slip. Ron Paul won 5 delegates. So much for party sheeple, we still have a few people out there willing to think for themselves. Maybe, if the media will just report and not decide, the rest of America can wake up and break free from their TVs.

I’ve been thinking about Yahoo! turning down an offer from Microsoft, and could not understand why they would refuse an offer that was probably overpriced. The only thing I could come up with was pride, they didn’t want to sell out to Microsoft.

Now I have another theory: stupidity. Google has been running the world of Search, largely due to their team of Ph. D.’s and unusually strong thinking. You never see anything dumb coming out of Google. Yahoo! on the other hand shows a lack of engineering understand in a graphic that is supposed to show the workings of their new strategy:

Do you see the problem with this graphic, located on the Yahoo! Developer Network Home? Spin an internal gear the the whole thing comes apart! How can you expect a company with such lousy engineers to know a good deal when they see one?

Coast-to-Coast AM is a serious threat to my ability to get a good night sleep, because the show fills my head with exciting theories of ghosts, space aliens and ancient civilizations. One of the guests on the show was Thomas Greanias who has written books that would made fans of Dan Brown and Michael Chirchton swoon.

His newest endeavor is called “The Atlantis Prophecy” and seems to have a “National Treasure” and “Di Vinci Code” feel. I’m looking forward to seeing the movie and hope it lives up to the hype.

Here is the trailer for the movie, for your viewing pleasure:

In a previous post I wrote about how John McCain worked to alter election law to his benefit, but it looks like the laws are coming back to bite him toward the end of his Presidential primary run.

John McCain has spent nearly $50mil so far seeking the Republican Presidential nomination. Late 2007 his campaign was not doing as well as it is now, so he applied for a $6mil loan from Fidelity Bank and Trust of Bethesda Maryland. He needed the additional money to gain automatic ballot access in all states, as opposed to paying several million dollars to gain access to the ballots. In order to secure the loan, John McCain used the prospect of obtaining Federal Matching funds.

According to election law, any candidate using Federal Matching Funds is bound to limitations.  The limitation that John McCain is running up against is the $54mil limit on spending.  Considering he has reported spending nearly $50mil and more money since then, it is possible that he will not be legally allowed to spend any more money.

John McCain thought he was free and clear of this limitation, since a couple weeks ago he wrote to the FEC to withdraw his application for matching funds.  The commission responded (PDF) stating that he provided the prospect of Federal Matching Funds as collateral for the loan, which prevents termination of the contract.  According to election law, a candidate may withdraw an application as long as they have not received any of the funds or used the prospect of funds as collateral on a loan.  John McCain has until March 7, 2008 to file a response before the commission votes on rescinding the contract.

As it stands, the FEC is not likely to rescind  the contract.  The impact to the McCain campaign will be staggering.  Although McCain already appears to have the nomination locked up, he still needs another 200 delegates to win the nomination.  If he is not able to spend any more money, he may not be able to compete with Mick Huckabee and Ron Paul in some of the upcoming states.  Combine that with the potential scandal if he has indeed broken election law and the accusations of an affair with a lobbyist, McCain could lose out on additional delegates and potentially many of the unbound delegates.  If he is able to secure the nomination, he will not be able to campaign until he gets the nomination in September.

A McCain campaign blackout until September will virtually end his chances to win the Presidency.  Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama will be campaigning heavily in the months leading up to John McCain’s nomination, and they will surely use McCain’s inability to respond against him.  Events are shaping up in a way to ensure McCain will not be our next President; but then again, this election cycle is the most unpredictable election cycle in memory.